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Notes from the campaign


Wednesday, 30 August, 2006
An interesting Party Conference season?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Each Political Party will have the same reason to regard this year's conference with interest. In a word  - leadership.

 

In chronological order:

 

1) Lib Dems.

Having ousted Charles Kennedy to boost their chances against the Conservatives the LDs now find their popularity on the wain. This is as much to do with the rising popularity of David Cameron and the Tories as much as it may be that poor old Ming Campbell is simply not projecting much of a statemanlike image, or that Charlie Kennedy still haunts the Party. Then there are the golden boys looking on from the sideline, waiting for their chance - Nick Clegg, David Laws and no doubt several oddballs. This could get very messy.

 

2) Labour.

Will Tony Blair name the day? His authority is constantly being challenged and the Labour Party grows more fractious by the day. Will Gordon stop speaking in code and spell it out to Tony? What will happen on the fringe? Again, this could get messy.

 

3) Conservatives.

This is David Cameron's first party conference as Leader. he will want to stamp his authority on the conference and present the Conservatives as a united and disciplined force to be reckoned with. As usual, the journalists will want to find issue with what goes on in Bournemouth, particularly if they feel that having reported bloodshed at the Lib Dem and Labour conferences they should treat the Tories 'fairly'. Nevertheless, the Conservative have the best prospects for a good party conference and despite some minor controversies within the Party there are plenty of reason to be cheerful - like being ahead in the polls clearly and consistently. Government beckons.

 

No, we're not finished yet...

 

4) UKIP.

It may not be the big event that the other parties have, but the Purple people do have a party conference. Where? We don't know. What we do know is that following Roger Knapman's resignation as Leader, the UKIP have been choosing a new maximum leader. He will be unveiled at the UKIP Party Conference.

This, frustratingly for the Purple people, will largely go unreported. That would not have been the case had Kilroy-Silk been in the running, but since we are talking about a collection of MEPs and nobodies slugging it out in a typically rowdy UKIP  brawl it is likely that the outcome of this contest ranks alongside other minor curiosity value items in the eyes of the media.

 

We're not sure what the Greens are up to. In the past they haven't had a leader which is a bit sad, but we do hope they have a nice conference. Will it be carbon neutral?

 

Enjoy the conference season. It should be interesting.

Permalink

Friday, 04 August, 2006
Geoffrey completes his Summer Tour

For the past two weeks Geoffrey Cox has been meeting groups of people in Village Halls across the constituency. They have been invited to 'Brief your MP' meetings. The aim is to ensure rural communities which may suffer isolation get a chance to meet the man who represents them in Westminster.

 

In turn Geoffrey hears what life is like locally, what the real concerns of people are, and he can sound out voters on issues he is encountering in Westminster.

 

Geoffrey has also sponsored an exhibition on Micro-Generation at the Winkleigh Village Hall. Winkleigh is a village that has faced the prospect of a 'Biomass Generator' being built on the nearby airfield. This electricity power station may have consumed renewable power sources to produce electricity, but it would have had an environmental impact that many found unacceptable. Whilst the threat of the development may have receded, in the longer term ways must be found to produce renewable energy that do not substantially impact on the environment as the Biomass Generator and the massive Wind Turbines do.

 

Lastly, this is show season. Geoffrey attended the North Devon show in brilliant sunshine (this is not always the case) and found a warm welcome.

Permalink

Changes to Electoral Law

It may have escaped your attention, but the Electoral Administration Act 2006 received Royal Assent in July.  Not earth shattering news but important for our democracy. Here's a precis of what the act means:

 

a) Loans to political parties are now treated much the same way as donations. In other words loans must be declared and may only be made by 'permissible' donors - UK voters, companies, trusts and so on. No dodgy loans from China, the Middle East, Colorado and so on.

 

b) It will be possible to register to vote anonymously if you are 'at risk'.  Presumably that means your personal safety is seriously at risk and nothing more trivial.

 

c) You may now register to vote as late as 11 days before the election. This is a change from the effective 2 months before polling day.

 

d) Service voters may now register for three years rather than one. This is a response to the disgraceful state of affairs  during the General Election when British troops serving in Iraq and Afghanistan were effectively disenfranchised.

 

e) Postal and Proxy vote application forms now require a signature and date of birth. ALL existing postal and proxy voters shall have to reapply for postal or proxy votes.

 

f) There will be a review of polling districts and polling places within the next 12 months.

 

g) 18 year olds may now stand for election to Parliament and Local Council. Bringing forth the prospect of a teenage MP?

 

h) Voters will have to sign for their ballot papers on a 'corresponding number list' which will record to whom ballot papers were issued. This is likely to raise suspicion amongst voters about the secrecy of the ballot. In practice however it is a continuation of the system of limited traceability to prevent fraud. Who wants to be a presiding officer or polling station clerk at the next election?

 

 

Permalink

Friday, 28 July, 2006
The Blog revived - 14 months on

We closed down the blog after polling day feeling tired. Since then it has laid dormant, but is now restarting. Why?

 

Firstly blogging is becoming more important in politics. Several campaigning bloggers have led the charge against John Prescott for instance. In Canada, Conservative bloggers helped expose corruption within the governing Liberal party. The success of Conservative Home blog here in the UK has brought enhanced accountability and openness to the Conservative Party. It was the bloggers who led the campaign to stop the proposal to strip Party members of their vote for the Leader.

 

Secondly, the blog is a useful way of commenting on local issues, political points and other concerns. Since the General Election Geoffrey Cox has made an excellent start as Torridge and West Devon's MP. But he is not without his critics - usually Liberal Democrats who have a lingering case of sour grapes which sometimes manifests in the local newspaper letters page.

 

We're sorry that this blog does not have the facility for readers to make comments, though that amenity can be a mixed blessing! Please do leave us with feedback if you read something that you agree or disagree with.

 

Lastly Blog entries will most likely be sporadic rather than daily - we're not dedicated bloggers unlike some out there! 

Permalink

Friday, 06 May, 2005
A tale of two elections

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way."

 

Now we've got  Dickens out the way, this election blog is closing down with a celebration of the Conservative victory in Torridge and West Devon, but tinged with disappointment at the Conservative failure to gain power nationally and locally, dismay at the results for Devon County Council.

 

Firstly joy.

Geoffrey Cox was elected today at 5.30am. The count had gone into overtime because of the number of postal ballots. It was a nervous wait, as the tallies taken of ballot boxes throughout the night pointed to a close result. As it happened, the differential in postal ballots probably increased the Conservative majority. Lower turnouts in towns also helped. 

 

Geoffrey was kept waiting whilst the process of checking and verification was completed.  We are satisfied that locally the election was conducted in as fair and efficient a manner as possible, given the challenges election staff faced from postal voting and rolling registration, which both gave cause for concern on a wider scale. But that is the government's fault, not the local Council's.

 

When the moment arrived and the declaration was finally made there were tears of joy. It was a great feeling to have campaigned so hard, for so long and to finally have a result. This was a team effort and everyone who contributed, from putting up a poster, delivering a leaflet, stuffing an envelope, to those who contributed financially to the campaign deserves to share in the victory. Thanks and appreciation are due.

 

David Walter, the Liberal Democrat said later in a news interview that the Lib Dem vote did not turn out. He asserted that Lib Dem supporters had somehow been complacent. This does not square with what happened at the County Council elections which we shall deal with below. At the end of the day, the Conservatives fought the best campaign, and had the best candidate. Victory was both earned and deserved, not conjured or gained by default. The voters did come out, but not to vote for the Liberal Democrat, at least in this election.

 

Then sorrow.

It was perhaps too much to expect the Conservatives to seize power and uproot the massive Labour majority. This goes back to 1997, when the Labour victory left the Conservatives with a mountain to climb. We are now closer to the summit, but not there yet.

 

There is still hope. Labour's majority is much smaller, the discontent within its ranks less easily contained and the agenda will probably focus more and more on the size and cost of the state under Gordon Brown.

 

If the Lib Dems are going to occupy an independent position they must reconsider their juvenile animosity and antipathy towards the Conservatives. It is foolish and immature to constantly berate the Tories to the exclusion of Labour. For all the talk from the BBC about the Lib Dems being a genuine third force in politics they remain a long way from being a part of government. The Lib Dem approach to politics reflects this all to often.

 

Over the next four or so years the power will ebb away from Tony Blair - perhaps more quickly than he would like or calculate. Taxes will rise, public services will stagnate further and we shall still struggle to assert and define our position in the world. The liberal orthodoxies of political correctness will continue to fragment society. Rural areas like Torridge and West Devon will not fair well under Labour. It will take all the energy that Geoffrey Cox can muster to defend local services.

 

There is hope, however. Many seats that were once Conservative and fell to Labour in 1997 are now much more marginal. When the Conservatives come to drawing up their next list of target seats they wish to take from Labour to form a Government, they will find a target rich environment.  It is up to the party over the next four years to project unity, purpose and where necessary discipline to earn government. For all the Lib Dem talk, it is the Tories who are the real contenders for Government.

 

More sorrow.

Devon County Council is once again in Liberal Democrat hands. Congratulations to James McInnes for gaining Hatherleigh and Chagford. Christine Marsh held her seat. There was a brace of disappointments and near misses for other Conservative County Council candidates.

 

So for the next four years the Lib Dems will have a chance to demonstrate that they have matured as a party and can act responsibly in charge of a budget of £600 million, keep taxes low and manage public services like education and social services effectively. They've had other chances and blown them, and we doubt they'll achieve much this time. In four years time, the Conservatives will be poised to take control if they fail.

 

For all of this the Torridge and West Devon Conservatives leave this election period delighted with the main result and determined to build on the progress made. The Liberal Democrat candidate said his party will be back to challenge the Conseratives. We are not complacent, we will strive to serve the best interests of residents, taxpayers and voters. We're ready to govern.

Permalink

Thursday, 05 May, 2005
Your vote will count

... and be counted!

 

Vote Conservative today.

 

Tomorrow, the results from Torridge and West Devon

Permalink

Tuesday, 03 May, 2005
Can you believe a thing the polls say?

 

 

Will they never learn?

 

Despite what national opinion polls say there are a multitude of different local situations that simply are not covered by what the bald headline figures say.

 

For the Financial Times to publish its latest MORI poll and consider it newsworthy must take quite a lot of bottle on the part of its editor. Particularly when MORI produces other polls that tell a very different story for other papers.

 

All polling research needs to be read with scepticism. In marginal seats a number of factors kick in. For instance, the personal standing of the candidates, the votes taken by minor parties like the Greens and UKIP, postal votes and differential turnout.

 

All this is bad news for the news organisations, whose credibility is at stake.

 

Fundamentally, the electorate is more volatile, less brand loyal and far less predictable. Yet the newsies have an addiction to these polls they find hard to kick. It may be their undoing.

 

Having said all that, here is something from the Guardian today that may make Labour and Lib Dems hearts sink, and Tories cheer: "ICM's data suggests that despite claiming 23% of national polls, Lib Dems have failed to make progress in their 48 key marginal seats, where their share of the vote has fallen from 36% in 2001 to only 32% now. Far from making sweeping gains they may actually lose some of their existing seats which are vulnerable to Tory attack."

 

"In contrast the Tories look comfortable in the 57 seats they are defending against Labour. In these seats they have maintained their share of the vote at 44%, while Labour is down three points since the 2001 general election at 33%."

 

Are you thinking what we're thinking?

 

Maybe so, but until May 5th it's all just hopes and guesswork.

Permalink

Monday, 02 May, 2005
Labour's manipulation of democracy

 

It is becoming clearer by the day that Labour's changes to election law have been ill thought through, and may materially alter the result in this election.

 

Is this election being stolen by stealth?

 

We are all becoming aware of just how open to fraud the postal voting system is. But is also becoming painfully obvious just how inadequate the checks on who should, or should not be voting are.

 

You need only fill in a voters registration card to claim a vote. There are no checks and little opportunity for any official objections to be made. Just about anyone can claim a vote, even your pet Budgerigar, should you choose to register it and claim a postal vote on its behalf.

 

Dr Liam Fox made a speech on 30th April highlighting these problems and many others.

 

Perhaps most shameful of Labour's changes is the effective disenfranchisement of British Forces serving overseas. They now have to register annually for a vote, which has meant a sharp drop in registration, particualrly aongst troops stationed abroad.

 

As Colonel Tim Collins (above) pointed out at the beginning of the campaign, the forms that forces use to register to vote did not get to the troops in Iraq on time for them to claim a vote. It is disgusting and shameful that the men and women in our Armed Forces serving abroad will not have a say in an election where the use of force has been a significant issue.

 

In many marginal constituencies there are often only a handful of votes separating the parties. In many instances the changes made by Labour will most certainly make a difference.

 

There was a great deal of sneering and ridicule of the Americans for what happened in 2000 when the Presidential election went into dispute, mostly from the left of politics with its moral superiority complex. This time however, it is we who should be embarassed, our system of electing a government has most definitely been tainted by Labour politicians.

Permalink

Lib Dems trying to scam Labour voters

 

The leaflet above is being delivered in Labour areas of Torridge and West Devon by the Lib Dems. Using Labour Party logos and typefaces it clearly is designed in such a way as to draw in the Labour reader. There is little evidence at first glance that this is a Lib Dem leaflet.

 

Before the election, the Lib Dems sent out an invitation to the North Devon Business Club, inviting them to meet David Walter the Conservative candidate. Another scam.

 

 

But the appearance of the Labour scam leaflet is good news for the Conservatives. Why?  Answers:

 

a) The Lib Dems have adopted an old squeeze method, clearly abandoning attempts to use the Iraq war as a pull. In other words, the Labour vote is firming up and the Lib Dems are getting desperate.

b) The Lib Dems are inadvertantly focusing attention on the real battle for power, between Labour and Conservatives. This means they have to abandon any pretence of forming a national government themselves.

c) Lib Dem targeting is pretty poor, and they are delivering a lot of these leaflets through the wrong doors, sending out entirely the wrong signals in some pretty key areas.

 

Another case of the Lib Dems trying to fool the electorate, but ending up fooling themselves.

Permalink

Sunday, 01 May, 2005
Last Saturday before Polling Day

 

It's a bank holiday weekend, and the sun shone on Torridge and West Devon during what was a peak campaigning day for all parties.

 

The Conservatives were out in force in towns across the constituency on the last 'action day' of the campaign. From here on in it's time to get out the vote. If you have a postal vote, don't leave it late to return your ballot and risk your say to the mercy of the postal system.

 

Congratulations to the Greens for fighting an excellent campaign. There appeared to be more of them on the streets than Liberal Democrats or UKIP.  They may not win, but they have raised their concerns quite successfully without resorting to the underhand tactics of the Liberal Democrats.

 

Geoffrey Cox was joined by about 50 activists in Bideford on Saturday morning. Local kids had a treat as balloons and stickers were given out. In contrast the Lib Dems were very low profile.

 

This time next week it will all be over. The politicians will be recovering from their exertions and the general public digesting the results. Who will be Torridge and West Devon's new MP? Don't forget to have your say on polling day.

Permalink

Saturday, 30 April, 2005
Lib Dem nastiness sinks to new lows

It seems every Conservative candidate is getting the full works from the Lib Dems nasty department at the moment. Nothing is too low or bitchy for the Lib Dems ahead of polling day. In fact it seems Geoffrey Cox may be getting off comparatively lightly by being accused of being 'controversial'.

 

In Teignbridge, Lib Dem Richard Younger-Ross is attacking Conservative Stanley Johnson for having gone to Oxford University.  One wonders how many Liberal Democrat Members past and present have gone to Oxbridge.

 

In North Devon, Lib Dem Nick Harvey is reminding voters of Conservative Orlando Fraser's remarks about local women. This is something that Orlando has worked hard to overcome over the last few months, but if you are Nick then anything is grist to the mill.

 

Back to Geoffrey. If he is 'controversial' for being a successful barrister with a track record of skilfully defending his clients, how do the Lib Dems feel about their Party President, Simon Hughes? A Cambridge man, he is a successful barrister and should Charlie be decapitated, a leadership contender?

 

We could begin to name other Lib Dem barristers who have practiced alongside Geoffrey Cox

Permalink

Friday, 29 April, 2005
Election Literature in full flow

We have now passed the last day for posting election literature through the freepost for the General Election. It has begun to arrive on doormats, clogging up letterboxes and providing alternative reading for the politically curious, but no doubt a substantal proportion goes straight in the bin.

 

Our election literature can viewed in paperless form here

 

This is another crucial time when people weigh up their choices and examine what is on offer.

 

Both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have gone for addressed, as opposed to unaddressed mailings. The other parties have not bothered to address their literature.

 

In addition, both the Lib Dems and Conservatives have included personalised direct letters from the candidates. In the case of the Lib Dems there appears to be a 'catch-all' letter, whilst we Conservatives have targetted more specific groups using our 'Voter Vault' system. It is not 100% foolproof, but gives a good steer as to who is likely to support and what age they are.

 

One difference between the Lib Dems and Conservative letterwriting is the style of salutation. It is impossible to determine whether women are married, single, widowed or in a partnership. How to address them. Mrs, Miss or 'Ms'?

 

Being politically correct, the Lib Dems appear to go for 'Ms', upsetting quite a few ladies who have little truck with feminism or the likes of Germaine Greer. How many ladies have the Lib Dems upset like this? Torridge and West Devon is not quite like Islington...

 

By contrast the Conservatives usually use traditional titles, preferring for instance 'Chairman' rather than 'Chair' or 'Chairperson', taking the risk of offending the politically correct types. So we take the risk of addressing a single woman as 'Mrs'. It usually causes less offence.

 

Finally, please spare a thought for the poor Post man and woman who has to hump this stuff round. He or she doesn't get paid any more, and the extra weight in his or her bag cannot be doing his or her back any good. They are the humble servants of democracy.

Permalink

Thursday, 28 April, 2005
So who's got the best dressed Battle Bus

A bit of fun - who has the best dressed Battle Bus

 

Here is the Conservative entry

 

 

And here is the Lib Dem entry

 

 

What do you think?

Permalink

Wednesday, 27 April, 2005
Final public meeting held

Tonight the final big cross party meeting is held in Okehampton. It seems that these occasions provide an opportunity for the party faithful to turn out and hear their candidate debate, but there are not that many genuine undecided voters to be won over. 

 

To that end, athough they may be a public service and useful civic occasion, they have little campaigning utility for the politicians, who could easily doorstep or telephone more voters in the time the meeting takes.

 

That is a bit beside the point though. What these meetings do make plain is that not all politicians and parties are the same. Watching the five candidates perform is actually quite good theatre. Peter Christie, the Green candidate is a highly credible representative and advocate for his party, much to the irritation of the Liberal Democrats. Conservative Geoffrey Cox, used to performing in front of juries and being an inquisitor after the truth has pinned down the wriggling Lib Dem on more than one occasion. Rebecca Richards, the Labour candidate is a novice, but passionate in her beliefs. She deserves praise for the courage it takes to stand up for the Labour government in Torridge and West Devon, particularly in a hall full of hunt supporters.

 

It is difficult to say whether one candidate has emerged victorious overall, as they are all so different. These are not Presidential debates and each candidate will appeal to a different taste. Geoffrey Cox was clearly the best briefed and most able debater, though the UKIP candidate was not deficient. Coming from London, the Liberal Democrat candidate was probably too 'political' in his answers and needs to calm down. At times he appeared to be animated,  like a puppet from Gerry Andersons 'Thunderbirds' series, perhaps Lady Penelope's butler Parker?

 

In any case, theses debates add to the colour of the local campaign and are free. You cannot complain.

Permalink

Tuesday, 26 April, 2005
Lib Dems get nasty?

It is classic Lib Dem strategy - go for the Conservative jugular in the last week or so of the election campaign. All the chatter about being 'positive', 'honest' and 'fair' ends in a savage personal attack upon the Conservative candidate, in an all-out effort to deliver the coup-de-grace.

 

For this strategy to work however it has to be seen as plausible to start with. The electorate must have it in mind to do in the Conservatives, or it all ends in tears and disgrace for the Lib Dems.

 

Now it seems a similar approach  may be tried here in Torridge and West Devon. The line against Geoffrey Cox goes something like this: He's a fat cat barrister who would only be a part time MP. He's controversial.

 

Well Geoffrey is a highly respected and successful QC who has the skills and track record of success to earn considerably more than the average person. So does that make him unfit to be an MP?

 

Back to the Lib Dem strategy. Here are a couple of examples of how it often fails, or backfires:

 

In Tiverton & Honiton the Lib Dems attacked Angela Browning for being a hard right extremist. They used a disgruntled former Agent to bear witness to this and endorse their candidate, Jim Barnard. Rather than rallying people to the Lib Dems it had the opposite effect. The Conservatives turned out to vote and Angela's majority more than tripled. Angela simply is not and does not appear to be some goose stepping Nazi. Mr Barnard collapsed at the count when he saw what was happening and was carried away in an ambulance. 

 

In West Dorset Oliver Letwin was branded a 'city banker' in terms that smacked of anti-semitism. Given Oliver's friendly image around his constituency the Lib Dem message simply didn't ring true, so despite other problems in that campaign, he hung on. Simon Green, the Lib Dem candidate in that election is not contesting this one.

 

Many other Conservative candidates suffer this last week personal attack. It seems the Lib Dems use these attacks to rally the anti-Tory vote to their side. But the method itself demonstates the sheer hypocrisy and underhandedness of their methods. All the posturing and chatter about being positive and decent is simply the prelude to the main event, a descent into the gutter.

 

The strategy also carries a high price for failure - political oblivion for the Lib Dem candidate who fails to carry off the trick.

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