Will they never learn?

Despite what national opinion polls say there are a multitude of different local situations that simply are not covered by what the bald headline figures say.

For the Financial Times to publish its latest MORI poll and consider it newsworthy must take quite a lot of bottle on the part of its editor. Particularly when MORI produces other polls that tell a very different story for other papers.

All polling research needs to be read with scepticism. In marginal seats a number of factors kick in. For instance, the personal standing of the candidates, the votes taken by minor parties like the Greens and UKIP, postal votes and differential turnout.

All this is bad news for the news organisations, whose credibility is at stake.

Fundamentally, the electorate is more volatile, less brand loyal and far less predictable. Yet the newsies have an addiction to these polls they find hard to kick. It may be their undoing.

Having said all that, here is something from the Guardian today that may make Labour and Lib Dems hearts sink, and Tories cheer: "ICM's data suggests that despite claiming 23% of national polls, Lib Dems have failed to make progress in their 48 key marginal seats, where their share of the vote has fallen from 36% in 2001 to only 32% now. Far from making sweeping gains they may actually lose some of their existing seats which are vulnerable to Tory attack."

"In contrast the Tories look comfortable in the 57 seats they are defending against Labour. In these seats they have maintained their share of the vote at 44%, while Labour is down three points since the 2001 general election at 33%."

Are you thinking what we're thinking?

Maybe so, but until May 5th it's all just hopes and guesswork.