Will they never learn?

Despite what national opinion polls say there are a multitude of different local situations that simply are not covered by what the bald headline figures say.

For the Financial Times to publish its latest MORI poll and consider it newsworthy must take quite a lot of bottle on the part of its editor. Particularly when MORI produces other polls that tell a very different story for other papers.

All polling research needs to be read with scepticism. In marginal seats a number of factors kick in. For instance, the personal standing of the candidates, the votes taken by minor parties like the Greens and UKIP, postal votes and differential turnout.

All this is bad news for the news organisations, whose credibility is at stake.

Fundamentally, the electorate is more volatile, less brand loyal and far less predictable. Yet the newsies have an addiction to these polls they find hard to kick. It may be their undoing.

Having said all that, here is something from the Guardian today that may make Labour and Lib Dems hearts sink, and Tories cheer: "ICM's data suggests that despite claiming 23% of national polls, Lib Dems have failed to make progress in their 48 key marginal seats, where their share of the vote has fallen from 36% in 2001 to only 32% now. Far from making sweeping gains they may actually lose some of their existing seats which are vulnerable to Tory attack."

"In contrast the Tories look comfortable in the 57 seats they are defending against Labour. In these seats they have maintained their share of the vote at 44%, while Labour is down three points since the 2001 general election at 33%."

Are you thinking what we're thinking?

Maybe so, but until May 5th it's all just hopes and guesswork.

It is becoming clearer by the day that Labour's changes to election law have been ill thought through, and may materially alter the result in this election.

Is this election being stolen by stealth?

We are all becoming aware of just how open to fraud the postal voting system is. But is also becoming painfully obvious just how inadequate the checks on who should, or should not be voting are.

You need only fill in a voters registration card to claim a vote. There are no checks and little opportunity for any official objections to be made. Just about anyone can claim a vote, even your pet Budgerigar, should you choose to register it and claim a postal vote on its behalf.

Dr Liam Fox made a speech on 30th April highlighting these problems and many others.

Perhaps most shameful of Labour's changes is the effective disenfranchisement of British Forces serving overseas. They now have to register annually for a vote, which has meant a sharp drop in registration, particualrly aongst troops stationed abroad.

As Colonel Tim Collins (above) pointed out at the beginning of the campaign, the forms that forces use to register to vote did not get to the troops in Iraq on time for them to claim a vote. It is disgusting and shameful that the men and women in our Armed Forces serving abroad will not have a say in an election where the use of force has been a significant issue.

In many marginal constituencies there are often only a handful of votes separating the parties. In many instances the changes made by Labour will most certainly make a difference.

There was a great deal of sneering and ridicule of the Americans for what happened in 2000 when the Presidential election went into dispute, mostly from the left of politics with its moral superiority complex. This time however, it is we who should be embarassed, our system of electing a government has most definitely been tainted by Labour politicians.

The leaflet above is being delivered in Labour areas of Torridge and West Devon by the Lib Dems. Using Labour Party logos and typefaces it clearly is designed in such a way as to draw in the Labour reader. There is little evidence at first glance that this is a Lib Dem leaflet.

Before the election, the Lib Dems sent out an invitation to the North Devon Business Club, inviting them to meet David Walter the Conservative candidate. Another scam.

But the appearance of the Labour scam leaflet is good news for the Conservatives. Why?  Answers:

a) The Lib Dems have adopted an old squeeze method, clearly abandoning attempts to use the Iraq war as a pull. In other words, the Labour vote is firming up and the Lib Dems are getting desperate.

b) The Lib Dems are inadvertantly focusing attention on the real battle for power, between Labour and Conservatives. This means they have to abandon any pretence of forming a national government themselves.

c) Lib Dem targeting is pretty poor, and they are delivering a lot of these leaflets through the wrong doors, sending out entirely the wrong signals in some pretty key areas.

Another case of the Lib Dems trying to fool the electorate, but ending up fooling themselves.

It's a bank holiday weekend, and the sun shone on Torridge and West Devon during what was a peak campaigning day for all parties.

The Conservatives were out in force in towns across the constituency on the last 'action day' of the campaign. From here on in it's time to get out the vote. If you have a postal vote, don't leave it late to return your ballot and risk your say to the mercy of the postal system.

Congratulations to the Greens for fighting an excellent campaign. There appeared to be more of them on the streets than Liberal Democrats or UKIP.  They may not win, but they have raised their concerns quite successfully without resorting to the underhand tactics of the Liberal Democrats.

Geoffrey Cox was joined by about 50 activists in Bideford on Saturday morning. Local kids had a treat as balloons and stickers were given out. In contrast the Lib Dems were very low profile.

This time next week it will all be over. The politicians will be recovering from their exertions and the general public digesting the results. Who will be Torridge and West Devon's new MP? Don't forget to have your say on polling day.